The Arkle Trends

Before the festival it is always important to carefully research the races before having a bet in them. One way of doing this is to look at the key trends from the race.

@Cameron3012 has compiled the following trends to help pick this years Arkle winner!

 

The Arkle Trends 2017:

  • 27/29 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 16/17 winners had no more than 5 races that season
  • 15/19 winners were rated at least 142 over hurdles

(2015 1st. Un De Sceaux – 156  2nd. Vibrato Valtat – 138, 3rd. Josses Hill – 148 4th. Clarcam – 141)

  • (2016 1st. Douvan 160 2nd. Vaniteux 154 3rd. Garde la Victoire 154  4th. L’ami Serge 153  5th. Sizing John 151 6th. Ar Mad 124)

    (2017 – Altior 160 plus – Yorkhill 154 Identity Thief  157)

  • 6/24 favourites have won (but Mullins horses have been bucking all trends in championship races)
  • 12/16 last winners won last time out
  • 14/23 started at odds of between 5-1 and 10-1 (a reliable stat until last 3 years, one 33-1 winner , 4/6f winner and a 1/4f winner)
  • 2/23 SP returned greater than 10-1
  • Only 2 horses aged 8 years of age or above have obliged since 1960
  • 8/15 winners were the highest rated hurdler over timber going into the race (as was Un De Sceaux in 2015 and Douvan in 2016 – Altior will be the top rated hurdler going into this year’s race)
  • Placed festival/Cheltenham form is a positive
  • Only 3/35 made the running (even though he just failed, this stat continued in 2014 with Champagne Fever failing to hold on but UDS bucked the trend again as did Douvan who was up there early and made most of running)

There’s a lot of information to potentially help us pick a winner here. SkyBet are Non Runner No Bet on the The Arkle. Sign up here & get £10 free no deposit required!