Festival Handicap Chase Trends

Before the festival it is always important to carefully research the races before having a bet in them. One way of doing this is to look at the key trends from the race.

@Cameron3012 has compiled the following trends to help pick this years Festival Handicap Chase winner!

 


Festival Handicap Chase Trends (Ultima Handicap Chase) 2017:

  • 7/13 previous winners won last time out
  • 16/18 had won over 3 miles (last year’s winner Un Temps Pour Tout had actually won a Grade 1 hurdle over 3m)
  • 14/16 had an Official Rating of 143 or below (Holywell was just above at 145 and carried 11st 6 lbs on the day but was allotted 11st 3 lbs ante post in 2014, and Un Temps Pour Tout raced with 11stone 7 pounds being rated 148 for the race. Best to look at high 140s and work down from there.)
  • 10/17 – 58.82% of winners were priced @ 8-1 or less (good race for fancied horses) although only 2 favourites have won since 1977 – look at 2nd 3rd and 4th fav in market (this has reaped dividends over last 12 years including last year’s winner)
  • 13/16 were aged 7 or 8 (came good again 2015, 8 of the first 9 home were aged 7 or 8 – 2016 2 of the first 3 home aged 7)
  • 14/17 were rated between 127 and 143 (Druids Nephew 2015 winner raced of 146 and defied the usually helpful stat and UTPT defied this when racing off 148 to win last year)
  • Placed Cheltenham form is a positive
  • No runner rated 150+ has won for 32 years
  • 5 year olds are 1/86 since 1985
  • Alan King has won 2 of the last 13 renewals
  • Ireland has produced just 3 of the last 22 winners
  • Horses older than 10 are 2/47, even to place.
  • The Druids Nephew (2015 winner) became the first Hennessy runner to win this in the same season for 26 years.

Recent Trends

  • Note that in 2014 the top 4 carried 11st 2 lbs+. In 2015, 7 of the first 8 home carried 10 st 10 lbs. In 2016, the first 7 home carried 10 st 12lb+ (cream coming to the top in this handicap).
  • 5/5 winners in the last 5 years wore headgear (Un Temps Pour Tout continued this recent trend and actually 4 of the first 6 home last year wore headgear of some type)
  • 7 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 142 and 148 (looking like a narrow window to look at)
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had no more than 9 chase runs
  • No Graded chase winner for 6 years
  • 8 out of the last 16 hold up horses have won.
  • 3/16 big priced winners when field size at 23 runners plus
  • 13/16 were either novices (5) or 2nd season chasers (8)

There’s a lot of information to potentially help us pick a winner here. SkyBet are Non Runner No Bet on the Festival Handicap Chase. Sign up here & get £10 free no deposit required!