National Hunt Chase Trends

Before the festival it is always important to carefully research the races before having a bet in them. One way of doing this is to look at the key trends from the race.

@Cameron3012 has compiled the following trends to help pick this years National Hunt Chase winner!


National Hunt Chase Trends 2017:

  • 15/16 were 1st or 2nd in a chase raced over 3m
  • 11/15 finished in the first 2 LTO (2015 winner Cause of Causes didn’t)
  • FAVS are 3/7 since penalties were dispensed with (2014- 3 of the first 4 were in the top 6 in the betting. 2015 – 5 of the top 6 in the betting filled the first 5 places. 2016 – 4 places filled by 4 of the top 5 in the betting)
  • 29/32 finished in the first 4 last time out (Cause of Causes hadn’t in 2015)
  • Horses aged 7-9 are 23/27  (Minella Rocco aged 6 last year and bucked trend)
  • Only 3 favourites have obliged since 1992 (2 in last 5 years though)
  • 7/14 have been double figure priced winners (4 of whom started at 25-1 or greater – can produce a shock but favs 2/5 in recent years)
  • Only 2 6 year olds have won since 1989 from 73 runners (however, 3 of first 4 home last year were aged 6 including Native River, Minella Rocco and Southfield Royale)
  • No 5 year old has won in 37 years
  • Previous course form is a positive
  • O’Neill and McManus have a great record in the race (O’Neill is actually 5/11 and McManus won it again with Cause of Causes in 2015 and with Minella Rocco in 2016)
  • Nicholls has a poor record saddling only 2 placed horse from 17 runners

Recent Trends

  • 4/7 ran in a G1 chase that season (Minella Rocco ran in two G2 races)
  • 3/7 were top rated and were all favs
  • 4/7 ran at the previous season’s festival
  • 6/7 ran in a chase by 31st October during the season of their win (Minella Rocco missed this stat and did not race until 20th November)
  • 6/7 had more than 3 chase starts (exception Back in Focus – Mullins)

There’s a lot of information to potentially help us pick a winner here. SkyBet are Non Runner No Bet on the National Hunt Chase. Sign up here & get £10 free no deposit required!