Oaks entries most likely to get 12f
Gary Sears takes an early look at the Oaks with an emphasis on the breeding and a shortlist of the fillies most likely to get the 12f
Prices from Paddy Power
An advantage of having an early study of the Oaks is being able to eliminate the probable non-stayers, thereby hopefully finding some value with a shortlist of fillies who are likely to get the trip.
Current favourite Santa Barbara (3/1 with Paddy Power) takes a fair bit out of the market but is far from certain to stay (dam only produced one winner at 12f) and that a colt who has proved far better at a mile so more than happy to look elsewhere.
Aidan O’Brien does however have plenty of other potential chances and two who catch the eye are Willow and Divinely. The former’s dam won at 12f and according to the trainer’s recent stable tour is going to improve a lot this season whilst the latter, a sister to Found gained plenty of experience last year and is the sort to improve up in trip.
Worth a look
Anything Dermot Weld sends over for an Epsom classic is of interest so if Port Sunlight (20/1) turns up would be worth a look – her sire won a Derby and her dam was fifth in an Oaks.
Donnacha O’Brien’s Nicest (50/1) looked very promising on debut last season and can be forgiven her subsequent run on heavy ground – both her sire and dam won top grade races at 12f.
Turning to the home trained possibles, both Monsoon Moon (33/1) and Sea Empress (25/1) are prominent in the betting but are far from certain to stay whilst Snow Lantern (12/1) looked top class at Newbury but seemed to show so much speed that stamina must be a doubt.
A more likely stayer is Noon Star (20/1), by Galileo out of an Oaks winner whose stable has made a fast start to the season.
Haven’t seen any stable tour from Charlie Appleby yet so not sure where he is with A’Shaari (33/1)but she looked promising on her only start last season (soft ground) and dam won the Ribblesdale.
But one am most interested in at present is Teona. By a Derby winner out of a Coronation Cup third, she will relish the trip and couldn’t have been more impressive when winning a Newcastle maiden by 9 lengths last season (second regarded as a potential Group horse by connections). An Oaks trial looks to be the plan and all being well then on to Epsom.
In summary, TEONA (currently around the 16/1 mark) would be the main fancy with DIVINELY (66-1) and WILLOW (14/1) completing the tricast.
Good luck all
♦With the 2000 Guineas behind us, Gary Sears compiles a shortlist of those who can make their mark in the Derby in a month’s time: